The FBI recently announced that agents disrupted an alleged plot to attack the south Florida offices of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). The foiled attack, which was motivated by frustrations with the organization’s political influence, highlights the dangers that exist for advocacy groups and their supporters. It also reminds us of the importance of combating mistaken beliefs about undue influence of “money in politics.” The widespread but unsupported belief that certain groups can exercise corrupt control over the government through political spending can tragically motivate not only misguided proposals for reform, but also acts of violence.

From CBS News:

Prosecutors allege in their court filings that Pemberton was in a rideshare vehicle carrying three firearms, including an AR-style rifle, and ammunition when law enforcement officers stopped the vehicle on Dec. 25…

Prosecutors allege in charging documents against Pemberton that he chose to target the organization “because of its political influence” and due to his “frustration with the status quo.”

The Justice Department alleges Pemberton left a “goodbye” note discovered by relatives, in which he espoused “anti-authority statements” and talked of wanting to “close the loop” and “stoke the flames.”

As the most well-known pro-Israel organization in American politics, AIPAC is no stranger to being targeted by extremists. The group is both celebrated and denounced for its vigorous advocacy for pro-Israel policies and candidates. Throughout 2024, AIPAC earned high-profile media attention for its fight against a group of progressive House Democrats known as “the Squad.” When Squad members Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush both lost their seats in primaries following heavy opposition from AIPAC’s super PAC, condemnation of the organization on the left was swift and fierce.

Cori Bush called out AIPAC by name in a defiant concession speech, stating “And let me say this: AIPAC, I’m coming to tear your kingdom down!”

Meanwhile, Jamaal Bowman told his supporters, “We should be outraged when a Super PAC of dark money can spend $20 million to brainwash people into believing something that isn’t true.”

Other Democrats also joined in. “Bowman’s loss must put Democratic voters on notice: billionaires are dumping more money than EVER to smear progressives in primaries. Whether it’s AIPAC, crypto deregulators, or the big business lobby, these interests are trying to buy Dem elections and we can’t let it continue,” wrote Texas Rep. Greg Casar.

“It doesn’t matter what you think re: Israel & Gaza, but whether you believe democracy should be sold to the highest bidder. Today it may be groups like @AIPAC, but tomorrow it could be the NRA & big Pharma. Protect primaries, protect democracy,” wrote Wisconsin Rep. Mark Pocan.

To many of AIPAC’s critics, the group’s political muscle is a simple product of its financial largesse. A headline in The Intercept is representative of much of progressive media’s reaction: “AIPAC Millions Take Down Second Squad Member Cori Bush.” The New Republic’s Kate Aronoff offered a more extreme version of the sentiment on social media, opining, “Not good that AIPAC can shoot a money cannon at incumbent Democrats on behalf of a foreign government and the party is basically fine with it.”

Even supposedly neutral observers reported the primary results as a story about AIPAC’s political power, rather than voters’ opinions of Bowman and Bush. “Progressives face an existential threat from AIPAC. And there’s nothing to stop it,” warned a Politico headline in August.

Of course, AIPAC itself was also happy to claim credit because, like most advocacy groups, they want to be perceived as influential and effective. But a closer look offers a different story. Squad member Rep. Summer Lee of Pennsylvania, who faced millions of dollars in opposition spending from AIPAC’s super PAC in 2022 and has said Israel’s actions in the war with Hamas “look increasingly like a genocide of innocent Gazans,” cruised to re-election in 2024. If AIPAC could defeat incumbent politicians with a “money cannon” alone, Lee and other pro-Palestine Democrats like Reps. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota would be at the top of their list. Yet, all three easily won re-election.

While some AIPAC critics claim the group is buying elections, others have suggested the organization simply seeks out easy wins and avoids potential losses to bolster its reputation as a ruthlessly effective outfit. “In both Pennsylvania and across the country, AIPAC endorsed candidates who tended to be in noncompetitive districts or even running unopposed,” wrote Branko Marcetic in Jacobin. “That way, when its endorsees won, regardless of whether or not their AIPAC endorsement actually figured in the race, the lobby could then swoop in and loudly take credit, publicize its reverse-engineered 100 percent (or close to it) success rate in a cycle, and proclaim that ‘being pro-Israel is good policy and good politics.’”

That would explain why AIPAC spent enthusiastically in the primaries of Bowman and Bush, who were vulnerable to begin with, but did not mount similar opposition to stronger candidates in Lee, Tlaib, and Omar. This also fits with our general understanding of how money in politics actually works: There is no secret money cannon groups can use to override the will of the voters. Campaign spending is mostly only effective when voters like the messages and candidates being promoted. Just ask Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, or Jeb Bush.

AIPAC can make a splash in Democratic primaries by spending a lot of money, but it can’t force voters to care what they say. Some will, and others won’t. Ultimately, it’s the voters that matter, and that’s the way it should be. Bush and Bowman did not lose solely or even primarily because AIPAC opposed them. They lost because of a combination of factors specific to their districts, their opponents, and themselves.

In dismissing that messy reality and promoting the simple fantasy that wealthy oligarchs control the government like a puppet through super PAC spending, our politicians and media class fuel the kinds of conspiracy theories that lead unwell individuals down dangerous paths. Thankfully, the plot to attack AIPAC’s offices was stopped before anyone was hurt. But we should all remember that advocacy groups and their supporters can come under threat and embrace commonsense protections for their safety.